Staff writers pick Jim Paulsen and David La Vaque offer their predictions on the five semifinal games on tap at the Metrodome. Check during the day for in-game updates and results on the Star Tribune Football Hub at mnfootballhub.com.

CLASS 5A

Brainerd (11-0) vs.

Chaska (11-0), 7 p.m.

Jim says: With two teams so similar in style — both are fast, run-first (and second and likely third) offenses — mistakes will be the difference. Not just turnovers and penalties, which are obvious, but smaller things such as poor tackling, blown assignments and missed opportunities. Brainerd gets the sentimental vote: Coach Ron Stolski, who has won more games than any coach in state history (354), is in his 39th season at the school, 52nd overall as a head coach. But Chaska gets the victory.

Pick: Chaska 33, Brainerd 28

David says: Brainerd, one of the state’s grittiest and most poised teams, made me think long and hard about jumping off Chaska’s bandwagon. But I’m staying with the Hawks. Kolby Sieffert is a special athlete who makes plays at running back/defensive back. And if you focus on the Hawks’ option running game, quarterback Justin Arnold and receiver Calvin Buesgens will make you pay.

Pick: Chaska 21, Brainerd 20

CLASS 3A

Proctor (9-2) vs.

St. Croix Lutheran (9-2), 2 p.m.

Jim says: There is no more meticulous, detail-oriented coaching staff than the group under Carl Lemke at St. Croix Lutheran. They have perfected their option offense down to the inch, knowing that is often the difference between failure and success. There are two ways to beat an offense like that: superior athletes and 48 minutes of fundamentally perfect football. I don’t think Proctor has either.

Pick: St. Croix Lutheran 38, Proctor 20

David says: St. Croix Lutheran impressed me last week with its explosive offense. Quarterback David Ponath and company can beat you in several ways. He threw two touchdown passes and ran for a score — all covering more than 50 yards. If the Crusaders’ defense tightens up a bit, they will roll.

Pick: St. Croix Lutheran 30, Proctor 17

 

New London-Spicer (9-2) vs.

Rochester Lourdes (10-1), 4:30 p.m.

Jim says: I’ve tended not to pick against teams from the Wright County Conference, of which New London-Spicer is a member, but Rochester Lourdes’ ball-control offense and appearance in the 2012 Prep Bowl gives the Eagles the edge.

Pick: Rochester Lourdes 36, New London-Spicer 33

David says: Rochester Lourdes finished the season ranked No. 1 in the polls and has experience on its side after taking runner-up last season. All that said, New London-Spicer played a tougher schedule. The Wildcats will bring the requisite intensity to pull the upset.

Pick: New London-Spicer 28, Rochester Lourdes 21

CLASS 1A

Dawson-Boyd (11-1) vs.

Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s (12-0), 9 a.m.

Jim says: For two teams that lean on their rushing attacks, they aren’t afraid put the ball in the air. Both QBs, Joey Lee of Dawson-Boyd and Brandon Helget of Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s, have more than 1,400 yards passing.

Pick: Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s 27, Dawson-Boyd 21

David says: Kudos to Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s for winning the most games in school history. But Dawson-Boyd’s offense averages about 400 yards per game thanks to good balance and better athletes.

Pick: Dawson-Boyd 38, Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s 31

 

Mahnomen (12-0) vs.

Bethlehem Academy (9-3), 11:30 a.m.

Jim says: How can one pick against a team like Mahnomen, the Anaconda of Minnesota prep football? The Indians win by suffocating opponents with a defense that gave up less than 1,000 total yards heading into the state tournament.

Pick: Mahnomen 24, Bethlehem Academy 7

David says: Defending state champion Mahnomen has lost once in the past 40 games. Anything is possible but you don’t pick against that sort of sustained success.

Pick: Mahnomen 21, Bethlehem Academy 13