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Star Tribune staff picks: State tournament berths on the line

By David La Vaque and Jim Paulsen, Star Tribune, 11/04/21, 7:15PM CDT

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Perhaps the most competitive weekend of the season is upon us as teams cast an eye toward the state tournament and a potential date in U.S. Bank Stadium

Another week, another bit of lost ground for David LaVaque (22-18). Jim Paulsen (28-12) won’t be easy to catch from here on out. But hey, Jim didn’t get doughnuts sent to him last week by a smart-aleck coach, so David has that going for himself. Which is nice.

CLASS 5A

SECTION 5 CHAMPIONSHIP

Armstrong (6-3) at Cooper (7-2), 5 p.m. Friday

Jim says: This might be a case of oversimplification, but Armstrong goes as junior QB Jamen Malone goes. He’s a highly competent thrower, and when he completes 50% of his passes or better, the Falcons win. When he doesn’t they lose, including a 49-14 stinker in the first meeting with their intradistrict counterparts. Cooper is hoping to end its string of playoff losses and advance to the state tournament for only the second time. The pick: Cooper 36, Armstrong 34

David says: Cooper’s playoff losses of late came courtesy of Spring Lake Park. Section realignment cleared that hurdle. But Armstrong is no walkover. These teams are similar, especially when it comes to explosive play potential on offense. And while there’s a lot to like about Armstrong, Cooper just seems to do everything as well — and often a little better. The pick: Cooper 28, Armstrong 21

SECTION 7 CHAMPIONSHIP

Elk River (7-2) at Andover (9-0), 7 p.m. Friday

Jim says: Few teams have been successful shutting down Elk River’s big-play rushing attack, but Andover is one of them. The Huskies held the Elks to 13 points in September, only 7 last season. Andover RB Caden Wheeler is perhaps the metro’s most unheralded great back, with 1,190 rushing yards and 21 TDs to help balance out an offensive attack equally divided between the run and pass. The pick: Andover 44, Elk River 30

David says: Andover’s familiarity with Elk River negates the usual burden teams have with stopping the Elks. It’s time for a new narrative, one that looks at the pressure Andover’s offense can apply. The Elks give up a lot of first-half scores and one-third of the Huskies’ points this season have come in the first quarter. Elk River’s vaunted offense isn’t built for comebacks. The pick: Andover 35, Elk River 20

SECTION 2 CHAMPIONSHIP

Chaska (9-0) at Mankato West (9-0), 7 p.m. Friday

Jim says: This will be the fourth season in a row these two have met with the section title on the line. Mankato West has won 15 in a row since its last loss, to Chaska in the 2019 Section 2 final. The Scarlets have been ranked No. 1 all season and wore the designation well. They’ve shut out six opponents while averaging 47 points per game. I think their winning streak remains intact. The pick: Mankato West 30, Chaska 12

David says: Looking for the Eden Prairie of Class 5A? Look no further than Chaska. Their formulas are the same. A workhorse RB in Jack Boyle (at least 154 yards rushing in the past four games). A crafty QB in Brayden Sanders. Grinding, ball-control drives an Eagles fan could appreciate. And a stout defense that gets off the field. That’s winning playoff football. The pick: Chaska 21, Mankato West 6

CLASS 6A

Second round

Wayzata (7-2) at Stillwater (8-1), 7 p.m. Friday

Jim says: No team has grown more in confidence this fall than Stillwater, which had only two seasons above .500 since 2015. They’re answered lingering offensive questions and have the look of a serious contender. Since back-to-back losses to Centennial and Maple Grove midseason, Wayzata — leaning more heavily on bruising 6-1, 235-pound back Dante Cockrell Jr. — has regained its swagger. The pick: Stillwater 23, Wayzata 20

David says: Now well past its midseason slump, Wayzata is a tempting pick. The way Stillwater played at Eden Prairie, though, is tough to discount. Junior QB Max Shikenjanski is a special player. And he’s surrounded by guys who all season have played at a level equal to the state’s top programs, regardless of designation as a Gold or Maroon District team. The Ponies haven’t peaked yet. The pick: Stillwater 24, Wayzata 17

Minnetonka (8-1) at Farmington (5-4), 7 p.m. Friday

Jim says: In most years, Minnetonka’s success would warrant no less than a No. 2 seed and a home game in this scenario. But the Skippers were stuck in Class 6A’s strongest section, Section 6, were seeded No. 3 and now have to go on the road. I expect they’ll use that as motivation. They might not need it, however. Minnetonka is big enough, physical enough and versatile enough to win on its own. The pick: Minnetonka 31, Farmington 23

David says: Talk of the next great metro-area, big-school football program always includes Maple Grove, Prior Lake and Shakopee. And they deserve it. Farmington only needs a better public relations team, though, to join that group because the Tigers are making progress without as much recognition. A playoff victory against a program such as Minnetonka would expand that conversation. The pick: Farmington 29, Minnetonka 28

Rosemount (5-4) at Woodbury (8-1), 7 p.m. Friday

Jim says: Woodbury is one late-game two-point conversion (in a 15-14 loss to East Ridge) from being undefeated. Granted, the Royals haven’t played a difficult schedule, but it’s allowed QB George Bjellos to develop into a terrific passer (1,795 yards, 21 TDs). Rosemount is always physical but the Irish have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The pick: Woodbury 26, Rosemount 21.

David says: Woodbury, a somewhat underappreciated Maroon District team, only has one victory against a winning team. So strength of schedule is a wash. It comes down to the talent. Both teams have their share, and both are feeling good after last week. Woodbury pitched a shutout and Rosemount came back to win. Flip a coin, I guess. The pick: Woodbury 28, Rosemount 24

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