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Star Tribune staff picks: The stakes get higher for the playoffs

By David La Vaque and Jim Paulsen, Star Tribune, 10/28/21, 6:30PM CDT

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A late-season surge helped Jim overtake David for the season lead. Can David rebound when the games mean more?

Upsets aren’t just for those never-say-die football programs on the field. Star Tribune preps reporter Jim Paulsen (24-10) not only rose back up, but he is coming off a perfect week. David La Vaque (19-15) lost three of five last week and needs a regroup — and fast. The Class 6A teams begin their postseasons Friday, meaning the playoffs are finally in full gallop.

FRIDAY

Prior Lake (5-3) at East Ridge (5-3), 7 p.m.

Jim says: Considering how overwhelmed East Ridge looked in its season-opening loss to Eden Prairie, coach Dan Fritze and his staff have done a masterful job in getting the Raptors to this point. They’ve primarily leaned on their defense while the offense was getting seasoned. But Prior Lake wields the most potent offense East Ridge has faced. The pick: Prior Lake 34, East Ridge 21

David says: Prior Lake has weathered arguably the metro’s toughest schedule and ranks as the most overqualified No. 5 seed in Class 6A. Averaging 250 rushing yards per game, the Lakers are well-equipped for postseason success. RBs Joey Krouse and Grayson Spronk bring a solid 1-2 punch. The pick: Prior Lake 21, East Ridge 14

Lakeville North (3-5) at White Bear Lake (6-2), 7 p.m.

Jim says: A bellwether for the Gold and Maroon division concept implemented in Class 6A this year. Did White Bear Lake make hay with a Maroon-loaded docket? Is Lakeville North, a perennial power, a victim of a tough Gold schedule? For all of their struggles, the Panthers still stand tall behind a roughneck defense. The pick: Lakeville North 21, White Bear Lake 19

David says: A 63-point showing last week aside, Lakeville North’s offense has created more doughnuts than your average bakery. Now, it’s tempting to pick the Panthers, who thrive on being doubted. But at some point, your record reflects who you are. The pick: White Bear Lake 28, Lakeville North 20

Mounds View (3-5) at Anoka (5-3), 7 p.m.

Jim says: It’s been more than decade since Anoka hosted a home playoff game, so I expect the Tornadoes to storm out of the gate. But they’ll need to manage emotions, play mistake-free and not let Mounds View, whom they defeated 31-24 on Oct. 1, hang around and get confident. The pick: Anoka 33, Mounds View 14

David says: Turning from the psychological to the physical, Anoka plays pretty good offense and Mounds View struggles to make defensive stops. QB Jacob Deutschman threw for a season-high 335 yards and RB Wesley Lawver ran for two scores in the aforementioned Oct. 1 victory. The pick: Anoka 35, Mounds View 21

SATURDAY

Duluth East (4-4) at Elk River (6-2), 1 p.m.

Jim says: Duluth East’s record is a little misleading. The Greyhounds haven’t defeated a Class 5A team all season. And Elk River’s relentless Power-T offense, on the Elks’ new turf field, makes the Elks even faster. This is a bad matchup for Duluth East. The pick: Elk River 55, Duluth East 20

David says: Duluth East is 0-9 against Class 5A competition going back to 2016 and playing a road game against a difficult offensive formation. Not the ingredients for a slump buster. The Greyhounds must tighten things up after six fumbles and three interceptions last week. The pick: Elk River 48, Duluth East 14

St. Louis Park (5-3) at Armstrong (5-3), 3 p.m.

Jim says: At one point, St. Louis Park was sitting at 4-1 after winning four in a row. It hung with undefeated Chaska in the finale, losing by a single touchdown. Armstrong has dropped two straight, mustering just 13 total points. The Falcons are seeded higher in Section 5, 5A, but I’m thinking upset. The pick: St. Louis Park 26, Armstrong 17

David says: Opponents have outscored St. Louis Park in each of the first three quarters this season, which gives Armstrong QB Jamen Malone and his quick-strike receiving corps a reason for optimism. But the Falcons struggle stopping the run. And Orioles RB Deontez Ross Jr. has been tough the past few games. The pick: St. Louis Park 24, Armstrong 14

Bloomington Kennedy (5-4) at Hastings (6-2), 7 p.m.

Jim says: Hastings is peaking at the perfect time. The Raiders’ only losses are to Chanhassen in the season opener and to No. 2-ranked St. Thomas Academy. They’re on a roll, having won four straight. RB Brenden Freiermuth has rushed for 484 yards and seven TDs during the streak. The Pick: Hastings 30, Bloomington Kennedy 18

David says: Kennedy’s quadruple threat of QB Zachariah Zesch, RBs Saide Alassani and Marques Monroe, plus WR Rayzjon Walker, can hurt defenses. They brought the Eagles out of a midseason slump. Pulling an upset on the road against a more tested opponent will require their best. The Pick: Hastings 24, Bloomington Kennedy 21

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